Q3 2026 GTA Condo Report: Finished Units Sell, Pre-Construction Stalls

If you only read one number from the third quarter, make it this one: of every 100 new condos sold in the GTHA, 85 were in buildings that were already finished. That single statistic explains most of what's happening in the condo market right now. Let me walk you through it, based on Urbanation's Q3 2026 report.

A rebound, with a big asterisk

New condo sales across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area reached 760 units in Q3, compared with 370 in the same quarter of 2025. Add Q2 and you get 1,531 units in six months, nearly the 1,578 sold in the whole of 2025.

The asterisk: a normal third quarter over the last decade has averaged 3,483 sales. We're still 78% short of that. Things are improving, but from a very deep hole.

Who's buying, and what

• Completed buildings: a record 648 sales, 85% of the total.
• Pre-construction: 60 sales, down 61% from a year earlier.
• The longer view: 259 pre-construction sales across the region over the last four quarters, compared with 26,388 in the four quarters ending in early 2022.

The HST rebate is a major reason. Investors only qualify if the unit is substantially complete by December 31, 2029, a deadline buildings that haven't started construction realistically can't hit. Investors have followed the rebate to finished product. (I cover the rebate rules in a separate guide.)

Institutions are buying at a steep discount

In Q3, investment groups purchased 339 units in bulk, about 45% of all new condo sales, at an average of $763 per square foot. Compared with what the original pre-construction purchasers paid in the same buildings, that's an average 40% discount, and as much as 55% on some projects. Half of the bulk units purchased over Q2 and Q3 had two or more bedrooms.

My read: when large, data-driven buyers start writing big cheques, it's a sign they believe prices have reached a level where renting out condos for the long term pays again.

Developer inventory is finally coming down

Finished condos that developers still hadn't sold dropped 7% in the quarter, to 5,127 units. It's the first quarterly decline in four years. Measured against the current sales pace, that's 39 months' worth of supply, compared with 102 months in January.

For individual buyers, the average new condo price was $1,045 per square foot, but that figure includes HST. Take the tax out and it's roughly $925, which is only about 7% higher than resale units in buildings registered within the last year.

Very little is being built

This is what I'd underline for anyone with a long-term view:

• Only one new project went on sale in Q3: a 58-suite luxury building, and the first launch since late 2025.
• Construction began on just 381 units, all in one project.
• 35,920 units are under construction, the fewest since early 2012 and 66% below the 2023 high.
• Since January 2024, 12,667 units have been cancelled, including 3,889 converted to rentals.

Here's the schedule of new condos expected to be finished each year:

| Year | Expected completions | |---|---| | 2026 | 20,868 | | 2027 | 15,825 | | 2028 | 12,065 | | 2029 | 4,213 |

No presales means no construction financing. No construction today means no new supply in 2030.

The resale side

• Resale condo sales: 3,843 units, down 6%. Active listings: 7,020, down 11%.
• Average resale price: $630,000, or $724 per square foot, down 5.7%. That's the mildest annual drop in six quarters, and prices now sit 26% under their early-2022 high.
• Location matters: prices in the former City of Toronto dipped just 2.8%, to $905 per square foot. The outer 416 was down 7.9% and the 905 down 9.3%.
• Size matters: units larger than 1,200 sq. ft. lost only 2.2% of their value over the year. Smaller categories fell between 5% and 8%.
• Rents are steady: average condo rents were only 1.3% below last year, and leasing volume was at an all-time high.

How I'd use this

Buying to live in: the drop in completions coming over the next three years should mean fewer resale condos down the road. Prices in the core have already corrected meaningfully, and bigger units in the former City of Toronto have kept their value best.

Buying to invest: right now the value is in finished or nearly finished buildings, where developers are discounting and the rebate rules work in your favour.

Considering pre-construction: before anything else, find out what percentage of the project has sold. Lenders typically want around 70% before funding construction, and across the GTHA, only 888 units sit in actively marketed projects that have crossed that line. A low price is meaningless if the building never goes up.

Have a building or project in mind? Send it to me and I'll tell you honestly what I think.

Data: Urbanation Inc., GTHA Condominium Market Report, Q3 2026.