Every month I go through the TRREB numbers so my clients don't have to. October's data is worth a closer look, because for the first time in a while the trend lines are bending in a different direction. Here's my read.
The headline figures
| Metric | October 2026 | Year over year | |---|---|---| | Sales | 5,603 | down 7.9% | | New listings | 14,173 | down 11.9% | | Active listings | 25,098 | down 10.0% | | Average price | $1,024,108 | down 2.7% | | Sales-to-new-listings ratio | 40% | 38% last October | | Months of supply | 4.5 | 4.6 last October |
What I'm watching
Supply is the story. We've now had ten consecutive months where fewer homes came to market than the year before, and the number of homes for sale is down 10%. People who don't have to sell aren't selling. That is quietly propping up prices: with less competition, sellers aren't being forced into steep discounts.
Conditions are firming. In September, the sales-to-new-listings ratio sat at 31% and there were 5.2 months of supply. In October those figures moved to 40% and 4.5. Fall always brings fewer listings, so part of this is the calendar. But not all of it: buyers did more relative to what was available.
Prices are finding their footing. A 2.7% annual decline sounds negative, but September's was 5.1%, and October's was the smallest drop in over a year. Adjusted for the season, prices actually ticked up from September. For context, today's average is about 24% under the February 2022 high of roughly $1.34 million.
Prices by property type
| Type | Avg. price | Annual change | Sales (change) | Months of supply | |---|---|---|---|---| | Detached | $1,311,000 | -3.2% | 2,693 (-4.4%) | 4.4 | | Semi / row / town | $886,000 | -3.1% | 1,479 (-9.9%) | 3.4 | | Condo apartment | $621,400 | -5.8% | 1,385 (-10.4%) | 5.8 |
Detached sales dipped the least. Condos took the largest price hit and have the deepest inventory. Semis, rows and towns have the least supply of any type, at 3.4 months.
The city vs. the suburbs
The City of Toronto is still doing better than the 905 across every home type:
- Detached: $1,603,886 average in the City (about -1%) compared with $1,223,834 in the 905 (-4.5%).
- Semi / row / town: up 3.1% in the City, down 7.9% across the 905.
- Condos: $659,214 in the City (-5.6%) and $539,724 in the 905 (-6.2%).
One standout: detached sales in Toronto Central climbed 33% from last October.
Where the action is
The busiest part of the market is the most affordable part. Condos priced below $500,000 accounted for 42% of condo sales, compared with 29% a year ago, and sales in that bracket grew 28%. On the low-rise side, homes under $600,000 saw sales rise 53%. Interestingly, the top end of the condo market was busier too, with sales over $1.5 million up 21%.
Rates went up
On October 28 the Bank of Canada moved its policy rate up to 2.50%. It's the first increase since July 2023. To put that in buyer terms: each quarter-point change shifts what you can borrow by about 2.5%.
My advice right now
Buyers: you still have leverage, particularly with condos and anywhere in the 905. The winter months are typically slow, and slow markets reward people who are prepared. Since rates are rising, lock in a pre-approval with a rate hold before you begin touring.
Sellers: with fewer homes listed than a year ago, a well-prepared and properly priced home in Toronto will find a buyer. Condo owners face the most competition, so pricing right from day one is critical.
Curious what this looks like for your street, your building or your price range? Get in touch and I'll put together the specifics for you.
Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data for October 2026.
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